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英國科學家：下世紀 地球人剩5億
聯合新聞網 更新日期:2006/11/30 16:40 記者:編譯范振光/綜合報導
提出「蓋婭假說」的知名英國科學家羅夫洛克語出驚人，指地球溫度不斷上升，人類將難以生存，目前全球65億人口可能有數十億人死亡，下一世紀最多只有5億人能存活。
環境科學大師羅夫洛克 (James Lovelock)28日演說時警告，人類製造和地球本身釋出的二氧化碳排放量飆升使地球暖化，會導致水源短缺、海洋大部分地區生物死亡，植物也無法生長，人類當然無法倖免。
羅夫洛克表示，5500萬年前，地球釋出大量二氧化碳，溫度上升攝氏8度，過了20萬年才回復正常。他擔心，人為污染會使同樣情況重演，但以人類目前的能力，情況已無法改變，只能夠拖延時間，就像腎功能衰竭病人靠洗腎延長生命。
他更表示，地球暖化 (global warming)這個形容詞已不恰當，應該稱為地球熱化 (global heat-ing)。
羅夫洛克表示，過去至少發生七次如此大規模的氣候變遷，人類都適應生存下來，但這次，有能力遷移到避難地區或北極地帶的人，才有機會生存，可是到時大自然最多只能養活5億人。在此過程中，人類會進化。
羅夫洛克認為人類無力挽救地球，看法比英國官方悲觀。英國首相布萊爾上個月表示，人類還有10到15年時間遏止暖化到達重大天災的臨界點。
羅夫洛克1970年代曾提出「蓋婭假說」 (Gaia hypothesis)，認為不是生物適應環境，而是生物的存在使地球物理與化學環境改善，後來科學界折衷認為，生物與環境共同演化，有如一個超大有機體，形成所謂蓋婭理論。蓋婭是古希臘神祇，被認為是大地之母、眾神之母。
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蓋婭理論之父預測全球暖化效應勢不可擋,將有逾九成的人類死亡
路透社 更新日期:2006/11/29 15:00
路透倫敦電---一位備受爭議的氣候科學家周二表示，地球發燒了，而這可能令氣溫上升攝氏八度之多，致使地表廣大區域變得不適於居住，並威脅到數十億人類的生命。
因為提出活生生的星球的蓋婭(Gaia)理論而激怒氣候科學家，然後又因為支持核能而被環保人士敬而遠之的詹姆斯洛夫洛克(James Lovelock)說，受損的地球可能僅能支撐不到現有60億人口的10%。
「並非全體人類都會在劫難逃。相當多的人會死，但我不認為人類會滅亡，」他在記者會上說，「一個熾熱的地球無法支撐超過五億的人口。」
「幾乎所有我們檢視過的系統都處於正向的反饋...很快的，這些效應在全世界都將變得比工業等的二氧化碳排放效應更大，」他補充說。
科學家說，燃燒化石燃料(礦物燃料)發電和進行運輸而排放出的二氧化碳導致了全球的暖化，並可能在本世紀末前令地球升溫高達攝氏六度，引發洪水、飢荒和強烈風暴。
但他們也說，現在就採取強硬的措施去降低二氧化碳排放量，即可阻止大氣中二氧化碳的含量升至450百萬分率(ppm)--相當於較工業化前增溫攝氏二度--並可拯救地球。
**遏止全球暖化的行動都是白費功夫**
然而，洛夫洛克說，升溫八度已經勢不可擋，而儘管遏止升溫的努力在道德上是值得讚美的，卻都是白費力氣。
「這有點像是如果你的腎臟失去功能，你會去洗腎一樣--誰會在不洗腎就會死的情況下拒絕洗腎？我們應該在這種情境下思考，」他說。
「但記得，他們在做的全都只是爭取時間，沒有其他的。問題還是沒有解決，」他補充說。
洛夫洛克在1960年代使用了蓋婭(Gaia)這個希臘大地之母女神之名來描述他革命性的理論，並稱地球就像一個單一、自給自足的有機體一樣運作。他當時革命性的理論現在已經廣為世人所接受。
在倫敦對化學工程學院發表有關環境議題的演講時，他說，地球至少已經歷過七次戲劇化的氣候改變。
「在上一次冰河時期到現在的改變中，相當於非洲大陸的土地沉入了海裡，」他說，「我們在這個世紀所面臨的情況就是這麼糟糕或甚至更嚴重。」
**往北遷移**
「會有難民，而且為數龐大。5,500萬年前......生命往北極區移居，在變化的過程中留在那裡，並在情況改善後又回來。恐怕這是我們也必須去做的事情，」他補充說。
洛夫洛克說，退出削減碳排放的京都議定書的美國相信會有技術上的解決方案是錯誤的，而中國和印度這兩個新興經濟則失去控制。
中國每周都在建造新的燃煤電廠以因應強勁的電力需求，而印度的經濟也同樣在起飛。
他說，如果這兩國中不管哪國突然決定停止他們為了讓數十億國民脫離貧困而靠碳推動的經濟發展，那個國家將面臨革命；但倘若他們繼續現在的步伐，那麼上升的二氧化碳含量和氣溫將會扼殺植物並引發飢荒。
「如果氣候改變的過程不變...我認為中國在本世紀中就會無法生產足以支撐人民的食物。他們必須搬到別的地方去，西伯利亞很空曠，而它到時會變得比較溫暖，」他說。(完)
--編譯 林雨蒨;審校 劉瑞芬
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http://today.reuters.com/News/Crises...ryId=L28841108
Gaia scientist Lovelock predicts planetary wipeout
Tue 28 Nov 2006 9:50 AM ET
By Jeremy Lovell
LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The earth has a fever that could boost temperatures by 8 degrees Celsius making large parts of the surface uninhabitable and threatening billions of peoples' lives, a controversial climate scientist said on Tuesday.
James Lovelock, who angered climate scientists with his Gaia theory of a living planet and then alienated environmentalists by backing nuclear power, said a traumatised earth might only be able to support less than a tenth of it's 6 billion people.
"We are not all doomed. An awful lot of people will die, but I don't see the species dying out," he told a news conference. "A hot earth couldn't support much over 500 million."
"Almost all of the systems that have been looked at are in positive feedback ... and soon those effects will be larger than any of the effects of carbon dioxide emissions from industry and so on around the world," he added.
Scientists say that global warming due to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels for power and transport could boost average temperatures by up to 6C by the end of the century causing floods, famines and violent storms.
But they also say that tough action now to cut carbon emissions could stop atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hitting 450 parts per million -- equivalent to a temperature rise of 2C from pre-industrial levels -- and save the planet.
Lovelock said temperature rises of up to 8C were already built in and while efforts to curb it were morally commendable, they were wasted.
"It is a bit like if your kidneys fail you can go on dialysis -- and who would refuse dialysis if death is the alternative. We should think of it in that context," he said.
"But remember that all they are doing is buying us time, no more. The problems go on," he added.
REFUGE
Lovelock adopted the name Gaia, the Greek mother earth goddess, in the 1960s to apply to his then revolutionary theory that the earth functions as a single, self-sustaining organism. His theory is now widely accepted.
In London to give a lecture on the environment to the Institution of Chemical Engineers, he said the planet had survived dramatic climate change at least seven times.
"In the change from the last Ice Age to now we lost land equivalent to the continent of Africa beneath the sea," he said. "We are facing things just as bad or worse than that during this century."
"There are refuges, plenty of them. 55 million years ago ... life moved up to the Arctic, stayed there during the course of it and then moved back again as things improved. I fear that this is what we may have to do," he added.
Lovelock said the United States, which has rejected the Kyoto Protocol on cutting carbon emissions, wrongly believed there was a technological solution, while booming economies China and India were out of control.
China is building a coal-fired power station a week to feed rampant demand, and India's economy is likewise surging.
If either suddenly decided to stop their carbon-fuelled development to lift their billions of people out of poverty they would face a revolution, yet if they continued, rising CO2 and temperatures would kill off plants and produce famine, he said.
"If climate change goes on course ... I can't see China being able to produce enough food by the middle of the century to support its people. They will have to move somewhere and Siberia is empty and it will be warmer then," he said.